The drop rate is the frequency at which a monster is expected to yield a certain item when killed by players. When calculating a drop rate, divide the number of times you have gotten the certain item, by the total number of that monster that you have killed. For example:
- Bones have a 100% drop rate from chickens.
- Feathers have approximately a 75% drop rate from chickens.
All items have a chance of being dropped that is expressible as a number - their drop rate. Drop rates are not necessarily a guarantee. An item, for example, with a drop rate of "1 in 5" does not equate to: "This item will be dropped after 5 kills." While each kill does nothing to increase the drop rate itself, it is trivial to state that more kills gives rise to more chance overall.
A popular misconception is that you are guaranteed that item when you kill the monster number of times, where is the drop rate. You are never guaranteed anything, no matter how many of that monster you kill; the probability will infinitely approach 1 (100%) with each roll on the drop table. For example:
Which is approximately 0.02%. To find the drop chance in 5,000 kills, we can raise the equation inside the parenthesis to the 5,000th power, which yields a meagre 63.2% chance of getting a visage.
Similarly, we can solve for the number of KBDs you need to kill to have a 90% probability of getting one when you kill them:
Which yields the answer 11,512. Thus, we have shown that, while being counter-intuitive, drop rates are not what they seem to be.
Given a known value of , the chance of receiving such an item times in kills can be calculated using binomial distribution.
The probability of receiving an item times in kills with a drop rate of follows:
For finding the probability of a obtaining an item at least once, rather than a specified number of times, we can drop the binomial coefficient and simply the equation to:
Where is calculating the probability of not receiving the item, and we use that to calculate the inverse.
Giving us the answer, we have approximately a 2.3% chance of receiving a visage during this task.
|Icon||Item||Dropping monster(s)||Drop rate||Kills|
|Dragon full helm||Mithril dragon, Brutal black dragon||Very rare (1/32,768)||75,450|
|Dragon chainbody||Dust devil, (Thermonuclear) Smoke devil, Kalphite Queen||Very rare (1/32,768)||75,450|
|Draconic visage||(Brutal) Black, Iron, Steel, Lava, Mithril dragons, Skeletal Wyvern, King Black Dragon, Brutal blue dragon, Brutal red dragon||Very rare (1/10,000)||23,025|
|Dragon warhammer||Lizardman shaman||Very rare (1/5,000)||11,512|
|Elysian sigil||Corporeal Beast||Very rare (1/4,095)||9,428|
|Arcane sigil||Corporeal Beast||Very rare (1/1,365)||3,142|
|Spectral sigil||Corporeal Beast||Very rare (1/1,365)||3,142|
|Dragon pickaxe||King Black Dragon, Chaos Elemental, Callisto, Venenatis, Vet'ion||Very rare (1/1,500)||3,453|
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1/250 from chewed bones (and 574 bones for 90% chance)
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 1/2,000 from Thermonuclear smoke devil (and 4,604 kills for 90% chance)
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 1/128 from Kalphite Queen (and 294 kills for 90% chance)
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 1/5,000 from King Black Dragon (and 11,512 kills for 90% chance)
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 1/1,500 from King Black Dragon only (3,453 kills for 90% chance) and 1/256 from other Wilderness bosses (588 kills for 90% chance)